Grand National Runner by Runner Analysis

1. Imperial Commander

2009 Ryanair winner and 2010 Gold Cup winner, this boy is full of class but an injury forced him to miss almost two years. He returned in January with a brilliant performance in the Argento to be chinned on the line by Cape Tribulation and if staying is a big danger. Regular jockey Paddy Brennan is banned so Sam Twiston-Davies comes in for the ride which is no negative in its own right. For me I will just be praying he gets round safely and he doesn't do any damage to himself as he may be a bit fragile after missing Cheltenham. 12 years old but retains plenty of enthusiasm and ability

2. What A Friend

Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and trained by Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls, What A Friend has been tried at the highest level without quite being good enough. He is also a bit of an awkward ride but has plenty of ability but Gold Cup winning jockey Sam Thomas will have his hands full today. The marathon trip will suit him as staying is his forte but his only visit to the race resulted in him pulling up off a 1 pound higher mark in 2011. Place claims at best but could find like tough.

3. Weird Al

Another that is a bit short of top class but is also horribly out of form and has been since winning the Charlie Hall in 2011 and after coming 3rd in the Betfair Chase. It further doesn't help his case that the stable don't appear to be in the best of form right now and many of their runners are struggling. He was tailing off and struggling when falling four from home in this last year off a 3 pound higher mark but that shouldn't be enough of a turnaround. One last thing that he has a tendency to go over the top at the big meetings and burst a blood vessel, this has happened on more than one occasion with him. Place claims if getting his act together but that doesn't look likely.

4. Quel Esprit

From the Champion Irish trainer Willie Mullins he has had his jumping issues before but they appear to be ironed out now. Last time he was well beaten behind Sir Des Champs and even more importantly behind Joncol who reopposes today on worse terms. He is a former grade one winner but it wasn't a strong Grade 1 at all and he looks as if he will struggle today off the mark he has for himself. Paul Townend rides but it would be a surprise were he to trouble the judge.

5. Big Fella Thanks

Big Fella Thanks has ran over these fences four times and has completed on all four occasions so jumping shouldn't be an issue. The issue comes from the argument if he truly stays the trip and the answer is that he doesn't really, but the furlong shorter will help him. A win earlier on in the season at Wincanton wont help him today and he is on a career high mark. One to oppose but may give you something to cheer for and give you a run for your money.

6. Seabass

As I am writing this Seabass is just about favourite for the race and was third in the race last year after jumping the last fence in the lead. Katie Walsh rides again and looks to become the first woman to win the Grand National for her dad Ted Walsh who also saddles Colbert Station. He has trained the winner of the National before when son Ruby rode Papillon to victory in 2000, but off a 5 pound higher mark Seabass will have life tough. There is also the question of whether he stays and like Big Fella Thanks the answer is no, one for a place but will do well to win.

7. Roberto Goldback

Moved from Dessie Hughes' stable to Nicky Henderson at the start of this season and won easily first time up at Ascot before unseating at Newbury. Recent efforts have bought his rating back down to 4 pounds above his Ascot win but a better performance last time out is encouraging. Stable are keen on him but his jumping can sometimes be a little bit suspect which is a huge negative on this course. If he takes to the fences he could well be dangerous however. Never completed a race over 3 miles and a furlong which brings staying doubts into it, but the stable are in form and has a live each way chance.

8. Sunnyhillboy

Last years runner up when caught in the last few inches by Neptune Collonges, it was revealed after the race he has also sustained a tendon injury. He is now 10 pounds higher than last year and hasn't run over fences this year, was due to have a prep run in the Gold Cup but scoped dirty in the morning and didn't run. Last year he was a Cheltenham winner and coming into the race in much better form, but he arrives here fresh which is a positive. Richie Mclernon takes the ride again, he is about as cool a head you can have from the weighing room on your horse and knows the horse well. He stays well and jumps well enough which would hand him an each way chance but this is no easy task.

9. BallaBriggs

Winner of the race in 2011 when having Oscar Time behind him and also a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2010 in the Kim Muir. He was sixth in the race last year off an eight pound higher rating and is now only two pounds above his winning mark from 2011. Last time he ran a blinder at Kelso before tiring and it was possibly the perfect prep run for the race this year. He is 12 now and possibly a bit old in the tooth, saying that he clearly has plenty of spark left in him and it would be no surprise were he to reclaim his crown. Very bold jumper and a good chance.

10. Teaforthree

National Hunt Chase winner at Cheltenham last year over four miles beating Harry The Viking and second in the Welsh National this year. He is very stamina laden and the further the trip the better for him, the fences shouldn't pose a problem for him as he is a sound jumper. Not too many miles on the clock and off a career high mark of 151 holds some of the leading claims in the race. It would be no surprise to see morning support for him and could even go off favourite on ground he will enjoy. Huge chance.

11. Across The Bay

Very solid form this year and forgiving his Welsh National effort on very testing ground his form is some of the best on offer. Ran here in December on the Mildmay course and Jumped badly left which cost him the race in the end, tendency to not jump straight which he wont get away with here. Worries that he will probably need it a little bit softer but if in the mood he holds a good chance, however the stable are struggling as of late. An outside chance

12. Join Together

Late fast finisher in the Becher Chase here in December and the extra distance looks sure to suit, he just ran out of time that day but jumped well on the whole. Last time in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster he was badly hampered early on and was never on terms after that and subsequently pulled up. That run is easily forgiven and off a very handy mark of 150 he could potentially well handicapped and a bit better than his mark. Doesn't lack anything in stamina and except for his chase debut he jumps well on the whole, a very good chance.

13. Colbert Station

The second of two runners for Ted Walsh (other is Seabass) and Colbert Station is the choice of Champion Jockey AP McCoy who won this on Don't Push It in 2010. Looks as if this trip will suit but not for certain as he is yet to venture over 3 miles, but he looks a fine stayer. He jumps well and could have a big chance if taking to the National fences, the best chance for the trainer but has to defy a 17 pounds rise in the weights. If he can improve then he is a major player in the race.

14. Forpadydeplasterer

Once top class but lost his way from his early chasing career form, posting his first win this season since 2009 and a long string of seconds question his attitude. Major stamina doubts and is easily overlooked.

15. On His Own

Favourite for the race for a long time this season and was travelling very well in the race last year before coming down at Bechers the second time round. Only the one run this season to his name when winning a Grade 2 hurdle in Ireland and is still lightly raced. He runs off exactly the same mark this year and if he gets a clean round of jumping in he is very likely to be there at the end of the race. The choice of Ruby Walsh has to be respected on all known form and his price reflects that, a very strong chance.

16. Joncol

An absolutely Giant horse that could probably take these fences in his stride. Last time he was well put in his place by Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar in a Grade 1 but has been running well since back from injury. If he takes to the faster surface he could well be overpriced as jumping isn't an issue for him but he needs to answer questions about his stamina. He should stay the trip fine but you cant be certain until you see it for your own eyes. A big each way chance at a big price.

17. Balthazar King

For many their each way selection for the race and with his consistency you can see why, he sidestepped Cheltenham this year as the ground wasn't fast enough for him. He has made a bit of a name for himself over the cross country course at Cheltenham as of late showing his versatility. If adapting to these fences he could have a huge chance for an in form stable. Staying wont be too much of an issue and he cant be dismissed lightly, a good chance.

18. Cappa Bleu

These colours were carried in this race for many years by State Of Play and now he is retired Cappa Bleu looks set to take over the reins after his fourth last year. Paul Moloney has described him as safe to sit in as an arm chair showing his confidence in the horse's jumping abilities. All year this race has been the target for him but he has been running well over shorter distance which don't suit at all. Off a two pounds lower mark than last year he will have a huge chance and is a likely winner of the race.

19. Oscar Time

Second to BallaBriggs in the 2011 renewal of the race but has since lost his way in a big style and off the same mark as he was in 2011 can easily be dismissed.

20. Always Waining

Finally after years of trying he makes it into the race and can run in the National instead of the Topham. He has the best record over these fences out of any horse in training winning three times and three consecutive Topham Chase's. In the seven attempts on this course he has completed six times and loves it round here, especially in the spring when he is much improved. The only worry is his stamina but it does seem he has been overlooked somewhat and is a very live outsider at a nice price off a workable mark.

21. Tatenen

Tatenen unseated Andrew Thornton at the Canal Turn last year which is strange for him as he is usually a very sound jumper. The major doubt is his stamina and he is another that is easily overlooked.

22. Treacle

Treacle fell at the tenth on his only run over the National fences last year but if his jumping holds up then he is a very live outsider. Staying isn't too much of an issue for him and he comes into the race in good form as like last year when a staying on third in the Grade 1 hennessy. After last year he is overlooked but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise were he to run a big race and still be in contention turning for home.

23. Lost Glory

A consistent sort who keeps on winning however at a much lower level than this, there is every possibility he will stay the trip today but he needs to defy another 7 pounds rise in the weights. His jumping is more of an asset for him completing all of his 20 runs to date but he does need to improve considerably to win this, small each way chance.

24. Swing Bill

Swing Bill is bound to have his supporters being one of the only grey's in the field and old age has turned him almost white. That could also be his downfall in his prime he was a useful horse but he is a bit old in the tooth now and doesn't really stay this distance. He does jump superbly however and made it round last year when coming 10th and has also been fifth in a Topham round here. But overlooked here.

25. Saint Are

Saint Are is the youngest horse in the race at 7 years old but is one that has good reserves of stamina, he also enjoys running at Aintree. This is the first time he runs on the National course though, his other runs here have been on the Mildmay course. He is prone to making a few mistakes so it will be interesting to see how he takes to these fences, but the main worry is this race will come too early in his career for him and is best watched.

26. Chicago Grey

Chicago Grey is one of the horses in the field with least to answer about his staying ability as he stays all day and is a previous winner of the National Hunt Chase over 4 miles. Last time out he caused a bit of a shock when winning the Red Mills over 2 and a half miles, mostly because he doesn't appear fast enough for that trip. He has only made the trip to Aintree once which was in the race last year, unfortunately he only made it as far as the fifth before he was bought down. If Paul Carberry can get him into a rhythm at the back of the field he will have a huge chance, he is also one of 2 selections from pricewise.

27. Quiscover Fontaine

The second selection today of Pricewise and also the selection of yours truly, he ran in the race last year and was travelling well before coming down at the 17th fence. He runs off the same mark of 141 today and more importantly he gets the good ground he loves and rarely gets in Ireland. In 2011 he was 4th in the Irish National thus proving he has some staying power, obviously he needs a bit more but he is open to it. David Casey gets on very well with him and keeps the ride today which is a positive. I expect this one to run a big race at a big price and is todays Selection.

28. Rare Bob

Rare Bob has run over the National course three times and has completed once, the first time he fell but the second time was in no way his fault when bought down at the 5th. He is usually a very good jumper but he has an annoying tendency to make one silly mistake which costs him the race usually. If he can jump like he did when fifth in the Becher Chase behind West End Rocker he will have an each way chance but he also needs to prove that he can stay. Easier said than done judging by his past performances.

29. The Rainbow Hunter

Kim Bailey has saved The Rainbow Hunter for this race and has also given the ride to Aidan Coleman which is interesting. But on past form he doesn't look good enough despite usually being a sound jumper. Stamina queries make him easily opposable.

30. Becauseicouldntsee

Becauseicouldntsee ran in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and had a very tough race but ran a creditable fifth behind Same Difference. It would be a monumental ask for him to be competitive here and he unseated his rider round here last year. Easily dismissed.

31. Harry The Viking

Another that ran in the Kim Muir but that looked nothing more than a prep run for today and Ryan Mahon takes the ride. We know he stays and that he is a useful jumper but in all seriousness its hard to see him getting involved today and is on the slow side.

32. Mr Moonshine

Sue Smith is a trainer I am very fond of but her horses aren't really firing too much as of late, Mr Moonshine is one that I have liked for a long time. From his first run I have said he looks like a National horse but he may fare better with another year on his back and more experience. Saying that he is a very slick jumper and stays pretty well, he also has a bit of class about him but like I say this may come a year too early for him. Faint each way claims at best.

33. Mumbles Head

A rank outsider and he isn't getting any younger, fell here in the Becher chase and not seen since December. Before that he was in good form but is biting off a bit more than he can chew today.

34. Ninetieth Minute

Whats up boys won the Coral Cup a few years back and then in the coming seasons ran really well in Grand Nationals. That is exactly what Ninetieth Minute bids to do, however his jumping is sometimes a bit suspect and will need to brush up on that. His last run was promising though but has a lot to find with Colbert Station and again has a small each way chance.

35. Auroras Encore

He really comes into himself at this time of year and was well backed on his second to last run, since then he has disappointed at Kelso. The ground was probably a little too soft for him that day and today's ground will suit him much better. Sue Smith's stable jockey, Ryan Mania has chosen this one over Mr Moonshine and has to be respected after finishing second in last years Scottish National. There are no doubts about his stamina but his jumping will need to improve and despite that he is probably a bit overpriced. A live outsider.

36. Tarquinius

Probably better on soft ground and a very lack lustre display last time out, 100/1 for a reason and easily dismissed.

37. Any Currency

Probably a bit overpriced and has been an improved horse this season after a breathing operation and was jumping well here in the Becher when unseating at the Canal Turn. Didn't look totally in love with the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham but today should be much more to his liking and 150/1 is a bit of an insult to him. A small outside chance but well worth your 50p each way.

38. Major Malarkey

Pulled up early on in the Midlands National with a bruised foot, but he stays pretty well but he is weighted up to his best and he is what he is. Id be very surprised if a 10 year old will find the improvement he will need to ruffle some feathers amongst the big guns. Don't be surprised if he travels well for a long way though.

39. Soll

A big brute of a horse, I saw him at Sandown last time out and he jumped magnificently, definitely the performance of a horse that would take to these fences. He did it all the hard way from the front that day and is definitely not lacking in stamina as he was going away from them again at the end. One slight worry id have is that he may lack a bit of pace for the early part of the race and get himself a bit behind. If he can get a good position then Mark Grant will be in for the ride of his life round these fences and he could well be good enough to win. A strong outsider off a very low weight.

40. Viking Blond

The 40th and final runner in this years National, Viking Blond stays very well and jumps regular fences pretty well. However his only visit here ended up with him falling at the first fence and there is no confidence behind him today. A worthy 100/1 shot.


1st - Quiscover Fontaine
2nd - Cappa Bleu
3rd - Soll
4th - Joncol

So there we have it, all 40 runners of the Grand National. Good luck if you are having a bet and let me know what you are backing. You can follow me on twitter when all the talk is about racing on @lukeyboy1325 I look forward to hearing from you!

Happy Punting guys!